Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis∗
This paper reviews a variety of alternative approaches to the specification of the expectations of economic decisionmakers in dynamic models, and reconsiders familiar results in the theory of monetary and fiscal policy when one allows for departures from the hypothesis of rational expectations. The various approaches are all illustrated in the context of a common model, a log-linearized New Key...
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I am grateful to Jacques Dreze for helpful comments on an earlier draft.
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In the presence of principal-agent problems, published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations. Forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability. I test a cross-sectional implication of models of reputation and information-revelation. I find that as forecasters become older and more established, they produce more radi...
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The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. In recent decades, research in economics and finance has largely focused on the rational actor model, in which economic agents process all available information perfectly. In contrast to an older perspective represented by Keynes and Pigou, the rational model rules out un...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
سال: 1985
ISSN: 0735-0015,1537-2707
DOI: 10.1080/07350015.1985.10509462